Say Goodbye to the Queen of the Skies

Boeing is ending production of the original Jumbo Jet, Boeing 747, per a Bloomberg article. This plane has helped shape the world economy to what it is today. It is more than that, this is personal. The Boeing 747 has been a part of my life story from early on.

Boeing 747 by EC Holm

It had started its journey in 1970.  I first flew on one on a transatlantic flight from New York to Madrid only four years after its debut. The captain came over and handed me a pair of wings. Those were my first. I was seven years old at the time. Yes, the airline was TWA.

The plane made intercontinental flights economical and thus opened up economies. Business people used them a lot. They were also used to ship products. In later years, shipping companies like FedEx and UPS made use of them. Heck, I got FedExed in one while I was in the Air Force to Okinawa. It was a joke because FedEx was the contractor to carry troops to Kadena AB from the States, but it was a passenger plane, no boxes.

The 747 has seen all kinds of variations to her both military and civilian. Some notable variations of the plane have been a firefighter (Supertanker), telescope (SOFIA), rocket launcher (Virgin Orbit), large cargo carrier (Dreamlifter), a laser testbed (YAL-1 ), an engine testbed (article), and 2 of them reconfigured into the largest plane in the world (Stratolaunch). I loved these things. I thought it was amazing how such a large plane could be a tool to do such amazing work. Of course, there have been many production variants of the plane to suit many needs. I remember reading in 1988 about a 747 SP making a world record for flying around the world in record time. The article said that the plane made use of the jet stream. I had realized from talking to Air Force pilots that you can go Mach 1 ground speed in an airliner if you take advantage of a favorable jet stream. Not that you are actually breaking the sound barrier with the air around you because the air is moving with you.

I do not know what Boeing is doing by discontinuing the 747, queen of the skies. Personally, I think it is a mistake on their part like many mistakes they have been making of late. Sure, they blame it on the market and fuel economy, but customers are still wanting the old girl.

I find it nostalgic and frankly sad to say goodbye to such a beauty. Yet the end it is still not (if I dare conjure up my inner Yoda). Many 747’s are flying and will fly the blue yonder for many years to come.

Planetary Life

There are 36 planets with civilizations on them in the whole galaxy according to a new study (article). That's a very low number for the number of stars we have, and every star we looked at so far had planets orbiting it. The galaxy is 105,700 light-years in diameter or 8.77 billion squared light-years in area not accounting for the thickness of the galactic disk. That is 243.7 million squared light-years per civilization. WTF? No wonder we never see each other. We would have to be able to search that much of deep space. We cannot even send a probe to the next star, Alpha Centauri (4.5 light-years away).

Blue Marble by EC Holm

We are the biggest and baddest life we know. Earth has the only life we know about so far. We haven't found life anywhere else, but we are still holding out hope for Mars.

Earth is full of microbes down to the core. These are mostly the cause of methane from the ground. Mars has been found to have methane (article). There is a chance it has microbes hiding in its rocky depths. What if most planets have microbes that do the same? That would mean that life is abundant in the galaxy. In the 1990s, NASA JPL found microbial fossils in a meteorite that came from Mars (article). Though this is not conclusive evidence that Mars has microbes, it is strong evidence.

The Earth is full of microbes throughout its crust (article). This means something extraordinary. We never understood this before. It should have made more of a splash than it did. If the crust is full of life. When did life start? I suggest it didn't start on the surface in a pool of water. I suggest it started as the planet was forming, as the rocks, dust, water, and minerals were coming together in the Sun’s accretion disc that formed the Earth. Static electricity and other forces would no doubt be present at the time. Lightning at this time could spark the formation of amino acids which are essential for life. Here is an article supporting this idea. It is pure speculation how you get from amino acids to full-blown microbes of both bacterial and archaeal, but life does it. This scenario would result in widespread microbes on the crust both on the surface and below the new planet.

As a result of microbes exist throughout the crust of the planet, and methane emerges from the depths. Sure you may say what about abiotic methane. Well, most of Earth's methane is biotic, produced from organic material, and/or with the aid of microbes (article). Abiotic methane on Earth is rare. Methane outgassing has been observed on other planets in the solar system and assumed to be abiotic. What if it is biotic like on Earth? That could mean microbial life would be abundant in the universe. What a statement that would be. 

If microbial life is abundant in the universe, then that gives a better chance for the other 35 civilizations to exist. Now wouldn't that be something? We are all formed out of the ground because the ground is alive. You can think about that the next time you are digging in your garden.

Much of this is based on assumptions, speculations, and a few facts. It is fun to think about the possibilities. It is also fun to watch science evolve like the new NASA rover to Mars, Perseverance. It is due to launch soon. Check out its mission page and follow along (mission page). 

The Solar Sailer That Did

Lightsail 2 by EC Holm

When Lightsail 2 launched a year ago and first set sail, it was evident that the team had on their hands that an orbit that was less than ideal. Their perigee was low. With a craft that had rocket propulsion, this would have been no problem at all. Lightsail 2 has kryptonite that rockets do not, the source of propulsion is coming from one direction. The craft can only get a push from the Sun on one side of the planet, so it cannot circularize its orbit without the help of additional thrusters. The craft was only able to increase the eccentricity of its orbit, increase the apogee while the perigee decreases. Lightsail 2 was expected to deorbit after a few months, but it didn’t. Its mission control team pulled a rabbit out of a hat and minimized the altitude reduction as the craft made passed through its perigee thus extending its mission life. It has now been over a year. That's amazing. Congratulations to the Planetary Society and to the Lightsail 2 team.

Check out their mission control website: https://www.planetary.org/blogs/lightsail-2-extended-mission.html

Check out the one year in space celebration video by the Lightsail 2 team: https://youtu.be/Y4k1p0-59WE

Orbital Commercial Space is Open for Business

SpaceX has accomplished what many have said was impossible. They—a commercial company—have launched two humans successfully to orbit on the Crew Dragon (Dragon 2). Not only to orbit, but they have sent them to the International Space Station on May 30th, 2020. Some have said how important this accomplishment is for the United States to get back launching Americans from American soil. I agree; that's true. Nationalism aside, there is a much much deeper and more important milestone this accomplishment marks that few are saying, and it has to do with our future from here on out. It marks the beginning of commercial human operations. What does that mean? It means we are no longer dependant on government money to get humans to space. SpaceX will open the market to allow citizens and anyone to go to space.

An actor has a contract to go to the ISS on SpaceX Dragon to shoot a movie. Tom Cruise is reportedly going to ride on Crew Dragon to the space station in the near future (Verge article). This was announced almost a month before the launch. This is how Earth-shattering this launch is. It's already sparking space tourism.

A billionaire wants to go to space and take artists around the moon. He has a contract with SpaceX. The Dear Moon project by entrepreneur Yusaku Maezawa hired SpaceX to take him and artists on a journey around the moon on Starship. It's the most ambitious space tourism feat yet. The Crew Dragon launch validates SpaceX's ability to launch humans into space and thus to launch them on the yet to be developed Starship as well.

I heard on the webcast of the launch that SpaceX plans on sending making available twice a year on Crew Dragon a year to the ISS. This article from the Verge states that SpaceX made an agreement with Space Adventures to have four private citizens in the next year or so. 

Now, the future can open up. Commercial Space Stations project entrepreneurs can make real plans because they have a way to get people to their stations. Axiom Space, Bigelow Aerospace, and the Gateway Foundation have been surely watching eagerly the Crew Dragon launch.

Low Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, the Asteroid Belt, and deep space are all potential destinations for commercial human missions and colonies. The successful launch of Crew Dragon is amazing and is also the key to an open and profitable space future. Ad Astra.

Virgin Orbit First Launch Attempt

Virgin Orbit attempted its first rocket launch on May 25th, 2020. It experienced an anomaly shortly after the Boeing 747, Cosmic Girl, released the rocket, LauncherOne, and the rocket ignited. So far they haven't given any details as to what when wrong.

I followed their live Twitter feed as they attempted this launch. My impression is that this is a very complicated procedure, more so than a regular rocket launch. The rocket is powered by liquid fuel which is a first of its kind, air-launched rocket. The Pegasus of Northrup Grumman has solid rocket motors. The other thing Virgin Orbit is doing differently is that they are pitching the nose of Cosmic Girl up dramatically to release the rocket. This is to give the rocket a better angle than horizontal since it doesn't have a main wing-like Pegasus does. So, there's lots of variable and lots of things that can go wrong with LauncherOne.

Yeah, it was disappointing to hear that the rocket failed. It was a test flight, and there was no customer payload to lose. Still, I rooted for these guys, and they are doing something pretty extraordinary.

Virgin Orbit is focused on launching cube sats and compete with Rocket Lab.  Air launch does have a couple of advantages over regular land launches. It allows for launches form any airport. The rocket uses less fuel since it launches at altitude. Virgin Orbit aims to keep the launch prices for the customer significantly lower than the customers of the Pegasus system. 

UPDATE: According to Virgin Orbit post dated May 25th, the mission was a success, and data was collected to make modifications for the next flight. This kind of approach is reminiscent of the Russian way of development, which is to use actual tests to figure out the next step of development. It is a practical approach and can be more cost-effective than buying or making specialized test equipment just to develop one rocket. At least, that's opinions that I've heard over the years. I don't know how true that is. I just have to trust what they're doing and hope for the best. Any of these companies could always go the way of XCOR. Commercial space is a big gamble, but Sir Richard Branson is very resourceful, and his team of engineers and professionals seem really capable.

Posting Again

I want to start posting here again. I think the time is right. I initially stopped posting in 2017 because a lot of YouTubers came on and started to inform the public on commercial space which was my purpose. So, at that time I didn't see much point continuing. Also, a lot of social media groups came on and fans started to gather. People started to become interested in Space and not only space but in more science, technology, math, and engineering. This was a good thing and I applauded it. I heard of people, both men and women going into science and engineering. That was awesome. I hope the best for them.

Years on, now we have more science detractors. We have a pandemic. We have more commercial space companies. SpaceX is booming. Virgin Group has grown and is still working on its projects. Blue Origin has flown its suborbital craft and is working on its orbital rocket. Statolaunch has been bought out. Xcor went under. Dreamchaser project still holds on to the dream, and its parent company, Sierra Nevada, still gets contracts, very healthy. Bigelow waits. Then Axiom comes up with a commercial space station contract with NASA. It's not called that but it does the job. There is so much to talk about. More YouTubers are on talking about space projects and the field seems endless. I think it's finally happening. Commercial space is making a foothold and is here to stay. So, it can only get bigger. And I can only give my two cents on what all this means and how all this is going down.

Mad Dash to Plan B

NASA needs a bigger budget from Congress to get to Mars. Check out Dan Vergano’s article, NASA's Mars Program Is As Sad As It’s Ever Been

Elon Musk is considering pulling back on Mars for now. Check out this interview:

He needs to get the astronauts to space and to the ISS. He also needs to make it happen by next year. No  pressure. Except, no more landing legs for Dragon (see minute 35:45). So no power landing for it either, so no Red Dragon, either, and Dragon won’t land on the moon either. Come to think about it, that’s a lot of things. And there goes much of Musk's Mars plans for Mars out the window. And why? Well, real practical practice takes priority over dreams.

Notice that Musk said, “If you want to get people fired up, you make a base on the Moon. And then going beyond that, getting people to Mars.” He said this in minute 24:46.

Robert Bigelow was also at the same conference Musk was at. Check out this video.

Bigelow proposes going back to the moon before Mars because the Chinese are heading to the moon and we need to beat them to it. The prize is resources.

ESA wants to make an international base on the moon. They have been in talks with China about it, (article: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/moon-base-outpost-china-europe-chinese-space-agency-collaboration-together-a7702936.html) That’s very interesting. Let’s wait and see how things pan out.

It seems that Russia also has an interest in a mission to the moon (article: https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/15/roscosmos-first-manned-moon-landing/) We also need to wait on this as well. Maybe they will hook up with another country for this.

So what do we make of all this talk in the summer of 2017? To me, I can only conclude that for now Mars is out and the Moon is in on everyone’s agenda, including NASA’s. In my opinion this represents a change of plans that is steered by finances and resources. It’s sad that the dreamers dreams are put on hold for Mars. If you want to see a Mars landing, I suggest you keep healthy and plan to live a long life.

“The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry,” Robert Burns.